Gun Ban Budget Exceeds $1BN

According to recently released departmental plans and Treasury Board documents, the cost of the gun ban launched by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau nearly six years ago has officially crested $1BN.

According to their 2026-2027 Departmental Plan, Public Safety Canada has earmarked $145.1M in spending for the 2026-2027 fiscal year in support of the Assault-Style Firearms Compensation Program (ASFCP), which the Treasury Board's 2026-2027 Main Estimates provides further clarity on:

1) $64.8M in expected compensation for those businesses and individuals participating in the compensation program,

2) $28.8M in transfers to other entities supporting the delivery of the ASFCP, including all private contractors providing logistical, storage, and security services, and the destruction and disposal of confiscated firearms,

3) $51.5M in operating and administrative costs.

Additionally, the department's plan budgets a further $3.6M for the program during it's forecasted sunset period through the 2027-2028 fiscal year, which, when combined with the estimated $651.3M spent by the department on the ASFCP from 2021-2025 and $145.1M estimated over the next fiscal year, brings Public Safety's bill for the ASFCP to an even $800M.

Additional Cost Centres

Unfortunately, neither the Treasury Board's Main Estimates document nor the RCMP's 2026-2027 Departmental Plan includes any programmatic spending details related to their commitment to the ASFCP for 2026-2027, but recent financial reports indicate the RCMP's contribution to the ASFCP required $85.6M in spending authorities last year. If that funding level holds steady for the next fiscal year, which seems reasonably conservative given their involvement is unlikely to decline as the program moves into the collection and destruction/disposal phase, it will bring the RCMP's total projected spending on the ASFCP to $214.1M from 2021 to 2027.

Projections: $1BN for 42,000 Firearms & Worse Performance Than the Long Gun Registry

This brings the total projected cost of the ASFCP, initially estimated to cost between $47 and $225M when launched in 2020, to at least $1B by the end of the 2026 fiscal year.

To put that in historical perspective, it means the ASFCP will have incurred at least half the cost of the defunct long-gun registry (LGR), in roughly half the time.

Worse still, with AI models predicting a total involvement of roughly 42,000 firearms by the compensation program's end later this month, the ASFCP's projected participation rate is estimated to land between 2-4%; a far cry from the LGR's heady estimate of 50% compliance, which was itself considered a dismal failure and a significant contributor to that program's eventual demise.

Finally, if both the budgeted amounts and AI-powered models of participation rates hold true, the cost to the taxpayer is projected at $24,145. However, as we all know, two truths are unavoidable: 1) AI is fallible, and 2) the ASFCP has required additional funding beyond the amount allocated by the Treasury Board's main estimates every year since its inception. So while we may see more (or less) than 42,000 firearms declared to the ASFCP, in all likelihood, the total cost to taxpayers by the end of the fiscal year will exceed the $145.1M currently indicated - perhaps significantly, as the program moves into the cost-heavy collection, destruction, and payment phase.